National Affairs: Populism in Canada is different than U.S., Europe

By Medicine Hat News Opinon on March 2, 2020.

You wouldn’t know it from the angry protests and widespread disruption, but Canadians seem to be doing OK right now.

Poverty is at an all-time low and has taken its biggest three-year dip in Canadian history, new numbers from Statistics Canada show.

Families and individuals in Alberta still have the highest incomes in the country and poverty rates have dropped there, too.

And the middle class is doing just fine, thank you very much. There are affordability pressures, especially in big cities, but take-home pay is coming in steadily.

A stable middle class and improving poverty levels were supposed to inoculate Canada against the populist uprisings that weve witnessed in the United States and Europe.

And yet, here we are – with Indigenous activists blocking key arteries, environmental activists blocking city intersections, anger boiling over in Alberta and a full-blown political crisis over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s handling of an oilsands project.

Populism has arrived – just not from where we expected.

Since the election of Donald Trump, Trudeau has spoken passionately and repeatedly about the need to keep populism at bay by addressing income inequality.

“We know that a strong and thriving middle class is the most effective bulwark against destructive populism,” Trudeau said last summer. “That is the Canada that this turbulent world needs us to be.”

Billions of dollars have been dedicated to that cause and they appear to be making a difference – at least when it comes to reducing poverty. The Canada Child Benefit and the boost to the Guaranteed Income Supplement have done wonders to support low-income families with children, as well as seniors.

When other countries talk about the scourge of angry populism, they often point to the hollowing out of the middle class. But we don’t see that in Canada.

“Our middle class just kind of ticks along,” said Jennifer Robson, a professor of political management at Carleton University.

Data released this week shows that the share of income going to middle-class households has barely budged over the past five years. By this measure, the poorest of the poor are still just as poor, and the richest of the rich aren’t getting any richer. There’s a large gap, but it’s not getting larger.

And yet populism is on the rise, driven less by the anger of those who haven’t prospered than by the anxieties of those who have.

In angry Alberta, where disinvestment in the oilpatch and a stretch of low oil prices have forced growth to a near-halt over the past few years, average incomes have fallen, most notably for the rich. Take-home pay for the poor, on the other hand, is higher now than it was in 2014.

For pollster David Colleto, whose Abacus Data firm has been looking at discontent, Canada’s populism has been driven by control over future prosperity.

When those whose livelihoods are tied to fossil fuels feel threatened by a changing climate or a changing world, they get angry. And when political leaders pick sides, pushing the national discussion to extremes, “it becomes politically dangerous,” Coletto said.

“The energy debate here is not people wanting to join the middle class. It’s people fearing they’re going to fall out of it,” he said.

The fight against poverty is an obligation of any decent society.

Canada can take some comfort in the social safety net and income redistribution policies that successfully support low-income families.

But if we want to keep populism at bay, it would be more effective to find some middle ground on climate and energy, and give confidence and support to those whose livelihoods are at stake.

Heather Scoffield writes on national affairs for Torstar Syndication Services. @hscoffield