Barnes remains undecided as election call looms

By COLLIN GALLANT on April 22, 2023.

cgallant@medicinehatnews.com@CollinGallant

With less than 10 days before an election call and six weeks before voting day, voters in the Cypress-Medicine Hat riding still don’t know if the incumbent will be on the ballot.

Drew Barnes is the three-term MLA for the area, winning twice as a Wildrose Party candidate and once as a United Conservative, but has sat as an independent since early 2021 after falling out with then-leader Jason Kenney.

That hasn’t changed with new leadership in Danielle Smith, with Barnes continuing to issue campaign-style statements against the party, but without stating whether he plans to run again in the May 29 election.

In a statement to the News on Friday, Barnes reiterated that he will “consider all options” until the start the election period, expected to begin on May 1.

“I am continuing to work hard on behalf of all constituents … and am talking to Albertans daily about a new political opportunity that focuses on democratic reform, action to reduce crime … and lower taxes to make Alberta the freest, most prosperous place,” he wrote. “I will evaluate all my options until the writ is dropped, with the best interest of Cypress-Medicine Hat paramount.”

Since the fall, Barnes has said he was strongly considering running as an independent, potentially as part of a loosely connected group of independent candidates protesting party control over representatives.

Barnes also told the News this week that “all options” includes the possibility of not seeking re-election.

If he does run, that could create intrigue ahead of the vote, said Medicine Hat political scientist Jim Groom, both in the riding and the province where both main parties are very tight in seat forecasts.

“It certainly would make a difference if Barnes is in (for the Cypress-Medicine Hat race), and that might work to the advantage of the New Democrats, I would suspect, creating a bit of a split vote,” said Groom, adding Barnes walked the line of criticizing the United Conservative Party while remaining ‘conservative.’

“He really believes what he believes in, and may be a little too honest to be a politician,” said Groom.

“It may hold him in good stead with voters, but a lot of folks will look at it and ask what sort of voice would he have in the legislature? … He won’t win a lot of votes because of it, but there are people who are loyal to him.

“He’s got to decide for himself.”

The local constituency board was anxious to resolve the candidate issue as far back as last summer.

This winter, Justin Wright won the UCP nomination in March in a two-person contest after Barnes declined to seek the nomination – an option that was open to him, according to Smith during last fall’s byelection in neighbouring Brooks-Medicine Hat.

Cathy Hogg, the longtime Prairie Rose School Board trustee, won the New Democratic nomination among three candidates in voting on Feb. 28.

With the riding now weighted to urban voters south of Medicine Hat’s downtown since a 2019 redrawing, some observers say the NDP could perform better than in the last election, won by Barnes with two-thirds of the votes.

A similar three-way scenario in Brooks-Medicine Hat could produce interesting results as well, said Groom.

This month, Alberta Party Leader Barry Morishita announced he would run again in the riding were he lives and was the mayor of Brooks until 2021.

That’s after he placed third in the November byelection with 17 per cent of the vote, behind winner Smith (56 per cent) and NDP candidate Gwendoline Dirk (27 per cent). All three are set to run again this spring in the riding.

“Those Alberta Party supporters might be tempted to vote NDP and create a split on the centre and left, as opposed to the right, which is what happened in (the riding in 2015),” said Groom.

“It’s such a close election that anywhere they could hive votes off of the NDP would have been beneficial to them.”