Expected added snow likely not enough to reverse issues from regional drought conditions

By MEDICINE HAT NEWS on December 2, 2022.

https://www.medicinehatnews.com@MedicineHatNews

More snow than usual is predicted on the prairies this winter, but whether it can reverse “extreme drought conditions” in the Medicine Hat region won’t be known until spring, say forecasters.

Already this fall, southeast Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan have received two substantial snowfalls, but new outlooks state consecutive summers of high heat and low precipitation have left a deficit.

“Even a normal snowpack would likely result in further water supply shortages in 2023,” the Saskatchewan Water Authority stated in its situational report at freeze-up, published on Wednesday.

It predicts “extreme risk” of drought continuing in much of the southwest quadrant of that province where conditions were driest around Swift Current and north of Lake Diefenbaker in 2022. Crop and hayland moisture levels were considered short from Assiniboia to the Alberta boundary.

Sub-soil moisture in Alberta at Nov. 17 showed low to moderately low directly around Medicine Hat, but drier going north. Levels were normal to moderately high from Lethbridge south to the Saskatchewan boundary along the U.S. border.

Snow that fell in warmer than usual October and November may recharge dry soil, but could also freeze and affect absorption rates next spring.

The spring runoff forecast will be released in February by both provinces.

On Alberta rivers in 2022, volumes on the Oldman and St. Mary’s systems were “generally average” but above average on the Bow River system thanks to a snow pack that was one-fifth larger than average, according to Alberta Environment.

That agency states the long-term weather outlook predicts colder than normal temperatures and more than average snow throughout southern Alberta this winter.

The SWA also said it plans to lessen flows from Lake Diefenbaker this winter to build reserve and modulate flows on the Saskatchewan River down stream.

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