Doctors fear false sense of COVID security

By KENDALL KING, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter on February 5, 2022.

kking@medicinehatnews.com

During his regular ‘Update on COVID-19’ press conferences, Premier Jason Kenney continues to assure Albertans that “trends have been moving in the right direction,” however doctors across the province – including local doctor and president of the section of emergency medicine with the AMA, Paul Parks – fear his words are creating a false sense of security regarding the continuing severity of the pandemic, especially as the province hit its highest ever number of COVID-19 hospitalizations Tuesday.

During Tuesday’s press conference, Kenney stated, “We do continue to see small increases in the total number of non-ICU COVID patients. As of today, 1,476 patients in non-ICU beds across the system, which represents about 81 per cent of the capacity which is available. However, we do continue to see stability in the number of overall non-ICU beds occupied in our 100-hospital network at 5,325. So, that’s 86 per cent of the non-ICU capacity that is occupied.”

Statistics available on Alberta.ca place those numbers higher with the total number of patients with COVID-19 in non-ICU beds at 1,554 on Feb. 1, marking it as the day with the highest number of hospitalizations in Alberta since the beginning of the pandemic.

While Kenney acknowledged strain on hospitals, particularly those in urban centres, and warned Albertans, “We are not out of the woods yet,” he also stated he is “very optimistic that we will be able to move forward with meaningful relaxation of public health measures this month, including the elimination of the Restrictions Exemption – or proof of vaccination – Program.”

Parks, who works in Medicine Hat Regional Hospital’s emergency unit, believes Kenney is sending the wrong message to Albertans.

“The premier is in a press conference saying ‘we’re only 86 per cent capacity,’ but that’s 86 per cent of our surge capacity,” Parks told the News. “So, yes Medicine Hat and Lethbridge are OK right now, our hospitals are OK – whereas Edmonton, Calgary and Red Deer are at 120 or 150 per cent capacity. The analogy misleads the public. It’s like saying there’s a flood and it’s only up to our waist in Medicine Hat, but it’s over everybody’s heads in Edmonton, Calgary and Red Deer and they’re drowning. To just say that the average depth of the water across the province is fine is really misleading.”

Parks also takes issue with Kenney’s citation of non-ICU hospitalization capacity stats from previous years. In a Jan. 27 COVID update, Kenney said, “In a historic context, what we’re facing right now is not unusual. In 2018, in January, we peaked to 5,600 inpatients and that meant 99 per cent of available beds were full. In 2019, we peaked at 5,400 inpatients and 96 per cent of beds were full. And in 2020, pre-COVID, we peaked at 5,600 with 89 per cent of beds being occupied.”

“One of the problems is when you just compare hard stats, you have to make sure you’re comparing apples to apples and not apples to oranges,” said Parks. “If (Kenney’s) going to pick a number out of the air for 2017 or 2018 of what our total, absolute admissions were, it doesn’t phase in our isolation issues, (as) having to isolate patients causes major issues in our hospitals (and) if you compare and get actual staffing levels of what our staffing levels were when we had that peak (in the years) that he’s quoting, our bed spaces decreased over that time and our staffing is way less.”

“There’s all the markers that our system’s much worse than it’s ever been, but they just want to cherry pick one bed number from three-four years ago and pretend like things have been worse,” said Parks. “I worked in the system in 2018/2019. Nothing’s felt comparable to what we just dealt with in the last two waves.”

The News reached out to Alberta Health to inquire whether the differing level of care needed by patients with COVID-19 and those occupying beds before the pandemic should be taken into account when citing such statistics. No direct response was received, but they said the inquiry had been forwarded to Alberta Health Services.

In a statement provided to the News, AHS acknowledged the provincial health-care system is still facing significant stresses. The statement read, “The number of Albertans with COVID-19 who need hospital care continues to grow. To ensure we are able to continue to provide care for anyone who needs it, AHS is taking measures to increase capacity, while also ensuring we have the staff and resources to meet that demand. We are confident we can meet that demand, and are pleased that the rate of hospitalizations is slowing. Provincially, occupancy in non-ICU inpatient units is within normal capacity.”

While Medicine Hat is not experiencing max capacity in its hospital at the moment, hospitalizations related to COVID have risen since the beginning of the year. On Jan. 4, Medicine Hat Regional Hospital had four COVID-19 inpatients, with one in the ICU. As of Friday, MHRH has 31 COVID inpatients, with five ICU. During the same time frame, the South zone has gone from 18 COVID inpatients to 86.

Parks doesn’t find MHRH is facing the same level of strain it was during the fourth wave, but anticipates regional COVID hospitalizations will rise over the course of the month.

“They are drowning really bad in Edmonton, Calgary and Red Deer, but in the South zone for COVID we’re doing OK,” he said. “Every wave we’re two to three weeks behind, I think because we’re more geographically isolated and a smaller, more rural population.”

The current situation doesn’t negate Parks’s concerns however.

“I’m always concerned as our numbers go up,” he said. “We’re still facing very similar challenges of staffing as well, so nothing is dire right now, but the pandemic’s not over.”

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