gslade@medicinehatnews.com@MHNGillianSlade
A local political science professor says based on Premier Jason Kenney’s speech on Tuesday night, Alberta is going to face at least a decade of economic recovery when the pandemic is over.
“It’s going to take 10 to 15 years economically to get on our feet again,” said Jim Groom, a political science professor at Medicine Hat College.
Kenney predicts at least 25 per cent unemployment after the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Groom believes young people in particular may leave the province in a bid to find work or a less expensive education elsewhere.
He says when Greece went through some very difficult times and had a similar unemployment rate it was the youth who appeared to suffer the most with unemployment.
The challenge for the UCP-led government will include a huge paradigm shift, said Groom. Having been elected a year ago – with a carefully defined plan outlined in 180 pages and the introduction of austerity measures to reduce the provincial debt – everything has changed.
“Now turned on a dime,” said Groom.
It may require a change in political thinking and strategy for Kenney, who will have to sell that to his cabinet. Groom believes the UCP voter base will have confidence in the strategies Kenney will employ.
When the COVID-19 crisis is over and Albertans are faced daily with the economical ramifications they may be looking for some measures that the UCP would not typically employ.
Groom is not convinced it would be enough to make voters want the return of the NDP though. He says as long as the UCP continues to do some of the things that the NDP would do, it may be enough.
One of the options the government will no doubt consider is whether to raise or reduce the retirement age. The strategy could keep more older people working or free up those jobs for younger people, said Groom.
Some of the economic predictions include only half of the private businesses surviving the COVID-19 isolation period.
Groom says Albertans are known for an entrepreneurial spirit and even though some will fall away, others will rise up to fill the gaps.
Groom feels there should be a bigger focus on education to provide alternatives for young people. If they leave the province they will likely not return.
“I’m afraid we’re going to lose a whole generation of youth to other provinces,” said Groom.
