Policy back-and-forth dominates week 2 of campaign

By JEREMY APPEL on March 31, 2019.

jappel@medicinehatnews.com@MHNJeremyAppel

Medicine Hat College political analyst Jim Groom says Alberta has now entered the more policy-focused phase of the election campaign.

“We’re seeing a lot more things rolled out, which is understandable,” said Groom.

The two major parties are responding to each other’s policy pronouncements, which he anticipates will continue into the third week of campaigning.

“We’re going to see a continuation of this tit-for-tat – the UCP makes an announcement, the NDP makes an announcement – and back and forth a little bit until they’ve exhausted their imaginations on what they can really bring to the table,” Groom said. “At some point, you’re going to become repetitive.”

The NDP’s pledge to build a new highway to Fort McMurray and UCP’s plan to get tough on rural crime demonstrate that the parties are now making policy targeted towards particular regions of the province.

Other announcements, such as the NDP’s promises to expand $25-a-day childcare and hire more teachers, are targeted toward specific demographics – in this instance, millennials.

“They’re still somewhat pandering towards their base and they have to strengthen that base before they get into fighting the swing voters,” said Groom.

Once they have a firm grip on their respective bases, the two major parties will look at targeting potential swing ridings.

“You’re not going to work on swing voters throughout the entire province,” Groom said. “You’re going to have to find the individual ridings that are really going to be valuable and be able to make that difference, where you need another 500 votes to put you over, and those are the ones you aim for.”

Most of these toss-up ridings are likely in Calgary, where they have a lot of young voters, which tend to favour the NDP, but also have many people who work in the oil industry, who tend to favour the UCP, he said.

University of Calgary political scientist David Stewart says while the UCP focused on its economic message in the campaign’s first week, they’re now pivoting to other issues, such as rural crime and the education curriculum.

The NDP however, are still focusing on the themes of the first week – social policy and the perceived shortcomings of UCP leader Jason Kenney, he said.

The “kamikaze campaign” allegations that former UCP leadership candidate Jeff Callway was in cahoots with Kenney received a boost this week, with a new round of fines issued by the elections commissioner for irregular campaign contributions.

Stewart says it doesn’t seem to have had an impact on the campaign at this juncture.

“It’s a good issue for the NDP, although it doesn’t appear that people care overly,” he said. “It has to move beyond the general issue of the ‘kamikaze’ candidate to affect the character of Mr. Kenney more directly.”

According to Stewart, the UCP is clearly ahead in battleground Calgary at this point in the campaign.

“It’s leaning conservative, because the economic issues and economic anxieties that are possessed within the city don’t favour the NDP,” he said.

“The New Democrats have to move, not only the way people are intending to vote, but they have to move the message on which the campaign is going to be focused if they’re going to be successful here.”

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