Bernier departure shows inner issues, but shouldn’t threaten the party: political instructor

By Jeremy Appel on September 11, 2018.

jappel@medicinehatnews.com @MHNJeremyAppel

Medicine Hat College political scientist Jim Groom says Maxime Bernier’s abrupt departure from the Conservative Party of Canada is reflective of a clear rift within the party ranks.

At the same time, it’s unclear how deep the divisions within the party run, he added.

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner Conservative MP Glen Motz previously told the News that Bernier’s “little stunt he tried to pull … had zero impact except to unify the party.”

Groom says there must be some degree of dissension within the party ranks due to Bernier’s departure and the policy issues he raised.

“It will unite a certain faction, but it’s got to be a little draining on some of the folks,” he said. “It’s sour grapes on his part, but he does have supporters.”

Bernier was narrowly defeated in last year’s leadership race by leader Andrew Scheer, leading until the final ballot was cast.

Groom said it’s unusual that when Bernier announced he was leaving the party, none of the Tories’ sitting MPs joined him.

“It was a one-man show,” he said.

It’s understandable for the party to want to keep its internal feuding “under the carpet,” Groom added.

“Division has just destroyed the Conservative party time and time again in the past. They all recognize that and have seen it occur in many manifestations.”

He cited the split between the federal PC and Reform parties, which helped the Liberals retain government from 1993-2006, but acknowledged this rift is nowhere near as large.

“They’ve always had a diversity between the middle-of-the-road conservatives and the social conservatives,” said Groom. “I don’t know if they’ll ever be able to patch that up to an extent, because it’s the social conservatives that the rest of Canada doesn’t want necessarily.”

One of Bernier’s pet issues — phasing out supply management subsidies to dairy farmers — didn’t make it the floor at the August Conservative convention in Halifax, although it was proposed.

“The whole issue is contentious, because they know there are a lot of things on the table for it,” Groom said, referring to the ongoing NAFTA negotiations, where U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded Canada gut supply management.

Also, since Scheer won the leadership race due to significant support from the dairy farmer lobby, which opposes Bernier’s plans, it’s in Scheer’s political interest not to rock that boat.

“He is in no position to even suggest they’re going to bring up supply management as an issue,” said Groom.

He says it would be advantageous for the party to discuss the issue, since it’s been such a prominent topic in conservative politics of late, but the party doesn’t want to feed the perception that it’s divided.

“Rip the scab off again and have another look,” Groom advised.

Otherwise, the party risks alienating its grassroots supporters, he added.

“Is it a divided party?” Groom asked. “Every party’s got a certain amount of contention within its grassroots.”

But Groom says it’s unlikely Bernier’s yet-to-be-established party will make much of a dent in Conservative support in 2019, nor is he sure Bernier will win his Beauce, Que., seat.

“He’s an irritant, for sure,” he said. “But I don’t think he’s going to be effective enough to rock the boat to the extent where we have a growth operation.”

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