February 26th, 2024

Finns choose center-right candidate Stubb as president, preliminary results indicate

By Jari Tanner, The Associated Press on February 11, 2024.

HELSINKI (AP) – Ex-Prime Minister Alexander Stubb is projected to win Finland’s presidential election runoff on Sunday against former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto.

Finnish public broadcaster YLE projected that center-right candidate Stubb of the conservative National Coalition Party wins the Finnish presidency with 51.4% of the votes, while independent candidate Haavisto from the green left will get 48.6% of the votes.

YLE’s prediction, highly accurate in previous elections, is a mathematical model calculated on the basis of advance ballots and a certain number of Sunday’s votes under official data provided by the Legal Register Centre. Exit polls aren’t generally used in Finland.

The projected result would make Stubb, who was prime minister in 2014-2015 and has held at several other Cabinet posts, the 13th president of Finland since the Nordic country’s independence in 1917.

Stubb, 55, and Haavisto, 65, were the main contenders in the election where over 4 million eligible voters picked a successor to hugely popular President Sauli Niinistö, whose second six-year term expires in March. He wasn’t eligible for reelection.

Sunday’s runoff was required because none of the original nine candidates got more than half of the votes in Jan. 28 first round where Stubb emerged at the top with 27.3% of the votes and Haavisto was the runnerup with 25.8%.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

HELSINKI (AP) – Voters in Finland are choosing Sunday between two experienced politicians to be their next president, whose main task will be to steer the Nordic country’s foreign and security policy now that it is a member of NATO, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Former prime minister Alexander Stubb, 55, on the center right, and former foreign minister Pekka Haavisto, 65, from the green left, largely agree on Finland’s foreign policy and security priorities.

These include maintaining a hard line toward Moscow and Russia’s current leadership, strengthening security ties with Washington, and the need to help Ukraine both militarily and at a civilian level. Finland shares a 1,340-kilometer (832-mile) border with Russia.

Unlike in most European countries, the president of Finland holds executive power in formulating foreign and security policy together with the government, especially concerning countries outside the European Union such as the United States, Russia and China.

The head of state also commands the military – particularly important in Europe’s current security environment and the changed geopolitical situation of Finland, which joined NATO in April 2023 in the aftermath of Russia’s attack on Ukraine a year earlier.

A politician with the conservative National Coalition Party who led the government in 2014-2015 and earlier held several other Cabinet posts, Stubb took the top spot in the first round of the election on Jan. 28 with 27.2% percent of the votes and is the favorite to win the presidency.

Haavisto, the runnerup in the first round, was Finland’s top diplomat in 2019-2023 and the main negotiator of its entry into NATO. A former conflict mediator with the United Nations and a devout environmentalist, Haavisto took 25.8% of the votes in the first round. This is his third bid for the presidency. He is running as an independent although he is a former leader of the Green League.

In the last days of campaigning tiny differences in style and approach between the candidates have emerged.

Stubb and Haavisto differ in their stance on the hypothetical question of whether Finland would allow the transportation of the alliance’s nuclear weapons through its territory.

“Nuclear weapons are a strong element of our deterrence and our security. We signed our NATO agreement without any kind of limits,” Stubb told The Associated Press during a campaign event just outside the capital, Helsinki, on Saturday. But “we (Stubb and Haavisto) also agree that no one is offering us nuclear weapons … we don’t want any nuclear weapons.”

Haavisto said Saturday that he does not favor nuclear arms being transported via Finland in a crisis situation. His country of 5.6 million makes up a substantial part of NATO’s northeastern flank and is the European Union’s external border in the north.

“I think there hasn’t been any need to transport nuclear weapons to Finland or over Finland. As I’ve seen during NATO negotiations, the current nuclear policies of NATO are well-established and there is no need of changing them,” he said.

In November, Helsinki closed all eight official border crossings with its eastern neighbor, alleging that Moscow was using migrants to destabilize Finland in an alleged act of “hybrid warfare.” Both Stubb and Haavisto support the measure by the center-right government of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo.

A runoff was required because none of the candidates got more than half of the votes in Jan. 28’s first round.

More than 4 million people are eligible to vote. The winner will succeed highly popular President Sauli Niinistö, whose second six-year term expires in March. Niinistö is not eligible for reelection.

The Finnish head of state is expected to remain above the fray of day-to-day politics and largely to stay out of domestic political disputes.

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Kostya Manenkov and Sergei Grits in Helsinki contributed to this report.

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