A new poll conducted and released by Ipsos suggests support for an independent Alberta is on the rise, with three in 10 now either totally for it or leaning toward it. However, when pressed with variables such as actual cost, the number in favour drops by half.--CP FILE PHOTO
zmason@medicinehatnews.com
New polling numbers suggest initial support for separation is up in Alberta as both Premier Danielle Smith and Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi have issued public responses to separatist sentiment.
According to a new set of polls conducted by Ipsos between Jan. 9 and 14, approximately three in 10 residents of Alberta are seeking a new agreement to define its future relationship with the country.
This includes respondents who answered they would probably vote yes, and those who say they would lean toward voting yes.
The number has grown since the last round of public polling in December, when polls conducted by Pollara indicated only two in 10 Albertans were in favour of separation.
After “stress-testing” respondents, those numbers dropped by about half, meaning only 15 to 16 per cent of Albertans maintained support for an independent Alberta after considering possible costs.
The stress test methodology involves asking separatist supporters whether they would maintain their position under five challenging conditions unique to each province.
Ipsos says the finding that only half of respondents favourable to separatism would maintain their stance in the face of costs or consequences indicates many separatists are more interested in using independence to signal alienation to Ottawa rather than as a genuine attempt to leave confederation.
Of the remaining 44 per cent of respondents open to separation, 25 per cent identified themselves as conditional supporters and 19 per cent as symbolic supporters.
The Ipsos poll showed roughly equivalent support for separation from respondents polled in Quebec.
About 500 people in each of Alberta and Quebec were polled as part of a broader 2,000 person Confederation Stress Test study poll.
As support for separatism in the province grows, Leader of the Official Opposition Naheed Nenshi released a statement Monday denouncing separatism and appealing to UCP MLAs to make their stance on separatism clear.
He says he will be sending a letter to all MLAs, asking them to sign a pledge that puts their position on separatism on the record.
“Recent global events – Venezuela, Greenland, NATO, new tariffs – show just how critical it is that Canadians stand together. We have entered a dangerous new phase of global politics,” he said. “In times like these, we need nothing less than absolute clarity from our leaders.
“‘A sovereign Alberta within a united Canada’ is intentionally vague double-speak. It only gives Donald Trump, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury and those trying to make us the 51st state, power to escalate their threats and weaken us from within.”
Nenshi’s statement follows comments from the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a right-wing TV station last week suggesting that Alberta join the U.S. in the context of the province’s pipeline plans. The proposed pipeline is still opposed by the B.C. government and lacks industry support.
“They won’t let them build a pipeline to the Pacific. I think we should let them come down into the U.S., and Alberta’s a natural partner for the U.S.,” said Bessent. “People are talking. People want sovereignty. They want what the U.S. has got.”
On her radio call-in show Your Province, Your Premier on Saturday, Smith responded to Bessent’s comments, saying she doesn’t believe separatists are interested in joining the U.S.
“I would say that Canada is a great partner for the United States, on all fronts, and we always have been, and that’s the position we’ve taken, that’s the position I take when I speak with U.S. officials,” said the premier.
Smith said 97 per cent of goods cross the border tariff-free under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA). She said Alberta’s concern is with re-negotiating the remaining problem areas – which include aluminum, steel, lumber and automotive.
“I would say when I talk to people who are frustrated with the way we have been treated the past 10 years, they don’t say, ‘Therefore I want to be an American state,'” said Smith. “That is not what I’ve been hearing. They want a new relationship with Canada and that’s what I’m doing. I’m forging a new relationship with Canada.”
The national Ipsos poll is considered accurate to within +/- 2.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20. Provincial results are considered accurate to within 5.4 per cent.
