College Football Playoff picks: Sooners, Aggies, Rebels and Ducks should advance to quarterfinals

By Canadian Press on December 17, 2025.

Unlike last year’s debut of the 12-team College Football Playoff, weather should not be a factor in any of the first-round games this weekend.

Southeastern Conference teams Oklahoma, Mississippi and Texas A&M and one of the Big Ten’s four West Coast schools, Oregon, are hosting first-round games.

Last year, Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State were hosts along with Texas. Conditions for the games played on the three cold-weather campuses were, ahem, quite seasonal for the week before Christmas. Kickoff temperatures were 27 degrees Fahrenheit for Indiana-Notre Dame, 25 with an 18-mph wind for SMU-Penn State and 25 for Tennessee-Ohio State. It was sunny and 60 for Clemson-Texas.

It was especially nasty in Happy Valley with gusty winds creating a feels-like temperature of 12 degrees.

The forecast for Friday calls for a temperature in the 50s and some wind for Alabama-Oklahoma. On Saturday, it should be in the 70s and sunny for Miami-Texas A&M, mid-60s and clear for Tulane-Mississippi and mid-40s with a chance of rain for James Madison-Oregon.

The picks, with CFP seed and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma (minus 1 1/2)

The Sooners beat Alabama 23-21 on the road five weeks ago despite being out-yarded 406-212. The difference was Eli Bowen’s 87-yard pick-6 and a couple other Oklahoma takeaways. If the Sooners play a clean game offensively and their defense comes close to shutting down Alabama’s run game like Georgia did in the SEC championship game, they will be off to the Rose Bowl to face No. 1 Indiana.

Pick: Oklahoma 19-17.

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (minus 3 1/2)

This matchup could come down to which line wins in the trenches. Miami first-team AP All-America tackle Francis Mauigoa is the star on one of the best offensive lines in the country, one that has allowed just 11 sacks. First-team All-American edge Cashius Howell leads an Aggies front four on a defense that has recorded 41 sacks, most in the nation.

Pick: Texas A&M 24-20.

No. 11 Tulane (plus 17 1/2) at No. 6 Mississippi

The Rebels beat Tulane 45-10 at home in September and now will go for a second win over the Green Wave in Oxford. The wild card is how Mississippi’s players and holdover staff respond to Lane Kiffin’s departure three weeks ago. Tulane also is in transition, with Jon Sumrall leaving for Florida once the playoff run ends. One thing is almost certain: Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff will play better than he did in the first meeting.

Pick: Mississippi 31-21.

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (minus 20 1/2)

The Sun Belt Conference champion Dukes got into the playoff after Duke knocked off Virginia in the ACC championship game. For all they’ve accomplished under UCLA-bound Bob Chesney, they are out of their depth in this game. The Ducks were the unbeaten No. 1 CFP seed last year and were blown out by Ohio State in their first game, a quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl. A first-round game at home will be no problem this year.

Pick: Oregon 45-10.

AP predictions scorecard

Conference championship week: Straight up — 6-4; Against spread — 6-4.

Season: Straight-up — 192-59; Against spread — 123-127-1.

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Eric Olson, The Associated Press

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