Bubble watch: Surging Colorado State snags Mountain West automatic bid. Who might that knock out?

By Canadian Press on March 15, 2025.

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble picture:

Rams on a roll

Colorado State’s winning streak is at 10, and the Rams are headed to the NCAA Tournament after winning the Mountain West’s automatic bid with a victory over Boise State on Saturday. Since Colorado State was considered a fairly unlikely at-large candidate, that means the Rams now take a spot away from another bubble team.

That team might actually be Boise State, which was in the field according to some projections. One of the big questions on Selection Sunday is whether the Mountain West will get five bids or four — or perhaps even three.

Close call

No. 16 Memphis held on for a one-point win over Tulane in the AAC Tournament, and Virginia Commonwealth advanced in the Atlantic 10. If either of those teams lose, it will enter the at-large pool, which would be bad news for the rest of the bubble.

The experts say …

ESPN’s bracket projection dropped Boise State out of the field Saturday night in favor of Indiana.

Up next

Another game to watch for a possible bid thief: UC San Diego faces UC Irvine on Saturday night in the Big West final. Bubble teams should be rooting for UCSD.

Automatic bids so far

SIU Edwardsville (Ohio Valley), Omaha (Summit), Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), High Point (Big South), Drake (Missouri Valley), Wofford (Southern), Troy (Sun Belt), Robert Morris (Horizon), UNC-Wilmington (Coastal Athletic), St. Francis, Pa. (Northeast), Gonzaga (WCC), McNeese (Southland), American (Patriot), Montana (Big Sky), Bryant (America East), Norfolk State (MEAC), Colorado State (Mountain West), Houston (Big 12), St. John’s (Big East), Akron (MAC), Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC).

Automatic bids at stake Saturday

ACC (Duke vs. Louisville)

Big West (UC San Diego vs. UC Irvine)

Conference USA (Liberty vs. Jacksonville State)

SWAC (Jackson State vs. Alabama State)

WAC (Utah Valley vs. Grand Canyon)

Automatic bids at stake Sunday

AAC (Memphis vs. Alabama-Birmingham

Atlantic 10 (VCU vs. George Mason)

Big Ten (Michigan vs. Wisconsin)

Ivy (Yale vs. Cornell)

SEC (Florida vs. Tennessee)

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Noah Trister, The Associated Press

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