Inside the CFL: Winnipeg’s Last Dance arrives, they’re likely belle of the ball

By MEDICINE HAT NEWS on November 16, 2024.

sports@medicinehatnews.com@MedicineHatNews

Can much travelled journeyman quarterback Nick Arbuckle win the biggest game of his life?

Will 12-year veteran Zach Collaros lead his team to their third championship in five years and then fly off into the sunset with his brain intact?

Who will be the surprise playmakers who will rise to the occasion during the 111th Grey Cup?

The late Don Matthews took the old football clichÃ©, “Offence sells tickets, defence wins games,” and added, special teams win championships. In this important category, the Argos have the edge.

Lirim Hajrullahu is a more reliable kicker than Sergio Castillo. Bomber Jamieson Sheahan is the worst punter, Argo John Haggerty second best.

The Bombers lost the 2022 Grey Cup to Toronto when Marc Lieggio missed a last-play field-goal attempt. Will their kicker’s foot once again be the Bombers’ Achilles heel?

Return man Janarian Grant is a major force. He led the league in punt return yards and average, was second in kickoff returns and had four kickoff return touchdowns. Grant will provide the Argos with instant field position.

Winnipeg ranked ninth in return yards but first and second against returns. Grant is motivated. Last year he was third in the CFL for Winnipeg but the Bombers didn’t bring him back. He has a chip on his shoulder. If he has a big day, the Scullers will win.

Protecting the QB is always key. The Argos had the most sacks in the league, Winnipeg the fewest. Most Toronto sacks came from the front four of Folarin Orimolade, Jake Ceresna, Ralph Holley and Robbie Smith. Ceresna led the league with eight.

You don’t have to be a Hall-of-Fame-calibre quarterback to win a Grey Cup. In their two meetings this year, Toronto out-sacked the Bombers 12-2. The Argos won both games but only by a grand total of five points.

Still, it’s tough to win when you’re lying on your back. And remember: Winnipeg doesn’t have a decent backup.

Arbuckle doesn’t have to be the second coming of Doug Flutie. If his O-line protects him, he protects the football and makes efficient use of the talent around him, he’ll do just fine.

He has a solid receiving corps with Damonte Coxie, Makai Polk, Dave Ungerer, Dejon Brissett and DaVaris Daniels. They will also use returner Grant as a receiver. KaDeem Carey provides the running attack. It has been suggested that with Arbuckle at the helm, Toronto will run more. I disagree. To win the Cup, the Argos will do it through the air. The Double Blue led the league in scoring, even though Kelly missed nine games. You don’t do that without lots of offensive weapons.

Statistics can be useful but the Grey Cup is a moment in time. How did each team play in their division final?

Arbuckle stood tall when unexpectedly thrown into the fourth-quarter fray. The Argos took advantage of six enemy turnovers.

Zach Collaros had his best game of the year completing 19 of 26 passes for 301 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions. He was assisted by Saskatchewan strategy.

They only blitzed once and employed a very passive zone defence. The Argos will defend aggressively.

Conversely, the Rider offence was utterly predictable. The Argos like to mix things up.

Winnipeg didn’t have a great year. They were 2-6 at one point and Mother Nature had to blow them into first place. But last week, when the chips were down, their best players came through. Kenny Lawler dominated the Western Final.

Key matchups will be Lawler versus cornerback Benjie Franklin and weakside linebacker Brian Cole taking on Nic Demski. To keep Collaros upright, left guard Liam Dobson must keep Jake Ceresna at bay. Argo right tackle Dejon Allen has to look after the great Willie Jefferson who with his rushing ability and wingspan is a quarterback’s worst nightmare.

It will be Lawler and Demski with short passes to Brady Oliveira coming out of the backfield.

Toronto will win with defence, special teams and just enough offence to get by.

Winnipeg will win with offence and just enough defence to get by.

In each of their last four Grey Cup appearances, I’ve picked the Bombers to win.

This likely will be Winnipeg’s last hurrah.

They will win tomorrow.

I would make the same call if Chad Kelly was playing.

Graham Kelly has covered the CFL for the Medicine Hat News for 52 years. Feedback for this column can be emailed to sports@medicinehatnews.com.