New Brunswick election: Liberals take the lead as early returns roll in

By Hina Alam, The Canadian Press on October 21, 2024.

FREDERICTON – New Brunswick’s Liberals have taken an early lead over the incumbent Progressive Conservatives as the ballots started being counted after an election race notable for the stark contrast between the two campaigns.

Tory Leader Blaine Higgs, seeking his third term as premier, focused on the high cost of living, promising to lower the provincial harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent – a pledge that will cost the province about $450 million annually.

Higgs’s main rival, Liberal Leader Susan Holt, spent much of the campaign rolling out proposed fixes for a health-care system racked by a doctor shortage, overcrowded emergency rooms and long wait-times.

But what made the race unusual were the two leaders’ remarkably dissimilar campaign styles.

The 70-year-old premier, a mechanical engineer and former Irving Oil executive, led a low-key campaign, during which he didn’t have any scheduled public events on at least 10 days – and was absent from the second leaders debate on Oct. 9.

Holt, 47, missed only two days of campaigning and submitted a 30-page platform with 100 promises, a far heftier document than the Tories’ two-page platform that includes 11 pledges.

When the election was called on Sept. 19, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Green Party had three, there was one Independent and four vacancies. At least 25 seats are needed for a majority.

Higgs was hoping to become the first New Brunswick premier to win three consecutive elections since Liberal Frank McKenna won his third straight majority in 1995. But it was clear from the start that Higgs would have to overcome some big obstacles.

On the first day of the campaign, a national survey showed he had the lowest approval rating of any premier in the country. That same morning, Higgs openly mused about how he was perceived by the public, suggesting people had the wrong idea about who he really is.

“I really wish that people could know me outside of politics,” he said, adding that a sunnier disposition might increase his popularity. “I don’t know whether I’ve got to do comedy hour or I’ve got to smile more.”

On the campaign trail, Holt routinely drew attention to the “sharp contrast” between her collaborative approach to leadership and what she described as Higgs’s “one-man show.”

“We need a government that acts as a partner and not as a dictator from one office in Fredericton,” the fluently bilingual leader said in a recent interview with The Canadian Press.

Facing her first provincial election as leader, the former business advocate and public servant promised to open 30 community health clinics across the province by 2028; remove the provincial sales tax from electricity bills; overhaul mental health services; and impose a three per cent cap on rent increases by 2025.

A series of opinion surveys suggested the Tories and Liberals were locked in a tight race for much of the campaign, though Holt’s team appeared to be pulling ahead toward the end, according to poll aggregator 338Canada.com.

Still, Higgs had plenty to boast about, including six consecutive balanced budgets, a significant reduction in the province’s debt, income tax cuts and a booming population.

As well, the premier was quick to capitalize on the slumping popularity of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, telling voters that his main rivals – Holt’s Liberals and the Greens led by David Coon – were planning a power-sharing deal similar to the arrangement between the federal Liberals and New Democrats.

“This is a direct page out of the Justin Trudeau-Jagmeet Singh playbook,” Higgs said on the first day of the campaign, referring to the confidence and supply deal that saw Singh’s NDP support Trudeau’s Liberal minority government until last month.

Higgs’s party was elected to govern in 2018, when the Tories formed the province’s first minority government in almost 100 years. In 2020, he called a snap election – marking the first province to go to the polls during the COVID-19 pandemic – and won a slim majority.

Since then, 14 Tory caucus members have stepped down after clashing with the premier, some of them citing what they described as an authoritarian leadership style and a focus on conservative policies that represented a hard shift to the right.

A caucus revolt erupted last year after Higgs announced changes to the gender identity policy in schools. When several Tory lawmakers voted for an external review of the change, Higgs dropped dissenters from cabinet. A bid by some party members to trigger a leadership review went nowhere.

Higgs has also said a Tory government would reject all new applications for supervised drug-consumption sites, renew a legal challenge against the federal carbon pricing scheme and force people into drug treatment if authorities deem they “pose a threat to themselves or others.”

Meanwhile, the legislature has been divided along linguistic lines since the Tories assumed power. The Conservatives have dominated in English-speaking ridings in the central and southern parts of the province, while the Liberals have held the French-speaking ridings in the north.

As the early results were reported, Higgs’s supporters were jammed inside a busy St. Louis Bar and Grill in Quispamsis in southern New Brunswick, where the suppertime rush was in full swing. Higgs was watching the early returns from his nearby home and wasn’t expected to head to the restaurant until the final results were known, a spokesman said.

Holt’s supporters were gathering at a Crowne Plaza Hotel in downtown Fredericton, and Coon’s supporters could be found a 10-minute walk down the street at Dolan’s Pub.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

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