A voter looks at the ballot list as they head to advance polls in Lasalle, Que., Monday, Sept. 9, 2024. People in two federal ridings are choosing their next member of Parliament today, and political parties are closely watching the results. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi
OTTAWA – The polls have closed and votes are being counted in two crucial federal byelections that are being closely watched by political parties.
While byelections aren’t usually credited with much significance on Parliament Hill, the votes in Winnipeg and Montreal are being treated as bellwethers of the political shifts happening in Canada.
Winnipeg’s Elmwood – Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics.
The New Democrats are hoping to hold onto the riding and polls suggest the Conservatives are in the running.
The Montreal seat of LaSalle – Émard – Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics.
Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.
Liberal ministers have visited the area several times as the party worked hard to keep the riding it has held for decades.
Montrealer Graham Juneau said that despite all the campaigning, he and many of his friends are “relatively disengaged.”
He opted to vote for no one, to make a point about “a lack of confidence in the political establishment in Canada.”
“At least amongst my peers, there hasn’t been a groundswell of enthusiasm for any of the particular parties,” he said.
The stakes are particularly high for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who faced calls for his resignation last June when the Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in a Toronto byelection.
The loss sent shock waves through the governing party, as the Liberals were faced with the stark reality of their plummeting poll numbers.
Some strategists have suggested that Jagmeet Singh’s leadership could come under similar scrutiny if the NDP fails to hold onto the Winnipeg seat.
Singh took a political gamble on signing a pact with Trudeau in 2022 to prevent an early election in exchange for progress on NDP priorities.
While that deal has yielded a national dental care program, legislation to ban replacement workers and a bill that would underpin a future pharmacare program, the results haven’t translated to gains in the polls.
Singh pulled out of that deal just weeks ago in a bid to distance his party from the Liberals and try to make the next election a two-way race between himself and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
The Conservatives have made an aggressive play for the riding by appealing to traditional NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.
“Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau are the same person,” Poilievre said in a social media video posted Sunday ahead of Monday’s vote.
A vote for the Conservative candidate in Elmwood – Transcona is a vote to “fire Justin Trudeau and axe the tax,” he said.
Elections Canada warned on social media Monday evening that the results in the Montreal riding could take longer than usual to be counted because of the record number of candidates.
There are 91 names on the ballot, making it the longest list in the history of federal elections. Most are affiliated with a group protesting Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system.
“Results will be available tonight or early tomorrow. Thank you for your patience,” Elections Canada said on X Monday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
