This satellite image provided by CIRA/NOAA shows hurricane Lee in the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, September 11, 2023. The Canadian Hurricane Centre says hurricane Lee could make landfall this weekend anywhere from Maine to southeastern Nova Scotia. THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO-CIRA/NOAA
HALIFAX – Hurricane Lee is expected to lash parts of the Maritimes with strong winds and heavy rain this weekend, but the Canadian Hurricane Centre says much of its strength will be sapped by cooler sea-surface temperatures as it moves north.
By early Tuesday afternoon, the Category 3 hurricane was about 900 kilometres south of Bermuda, churning out winds at 185 kilometres per hour. The slow-moving storm was forecast to make a turn to the north on Wednesday and then accelerate towards Canada.
Canadian Hurricane Centre meteorologist Ian Hubbard said the storm is expected make landfall on Saturday or Sunday, anywhere from western Maine to Cape Breton. He said it was too early to offer specific predictions about wind speeds.
“There’s still a lot of uncertainty as to where it might be (on the weekend),” he said in an interview Tuesday, adding that the hurricane is expected to change its structure and transform into a post-tropical storm as it approaches Canadian waters.
“There will be quite a diminishing of wind before it comes anywhere close to land. That’s a good thing.”
Hubbard said the storm is expected to be considerably weaker that post-tropical storm Fiona, which roared across Atlantic Canada almost a year ago, causing widespread damage and killing two people.
Still, Lee could dump between 50 to 100 millimetres of rain on some areas, Hubbard said, adding that the heaviest rain typically falls on the left side of the storm’s track.
He said the strength of its winds will drop as it crosses over parts of the Atlantic that were churned-up by hurricane Franklin and hurricane Idalia in recent weeks.
“They both left in their wake an area of cooler water that wasn’t there beforehand,” Hubbard said from the hurricane centre in Halifax. “That does reduce the fuel supply for these hurricanes, as they like to feed on that warm water.”
As a result, Lee is not expected to produce hurricane-strength winds, which are above 119 km/h, once it reaches the Atlantic region as a post-tropical storm.
But that doesn’t mean the region’s residents should relax. The storm will expand during its transition, and its heavy rain and gusts could still do damage, Hubbard said.
“This is going to be a much weaker storm (than Fiona) in terms of what its winds are,” Hubbard said. But Fiona was also a post-tropical storm when it arrived in Canada.
“Don’t let your guard down just because it’s no longer a hurricane,” he cautioned. “All of the energy of the hurricane is still present, and as it goes post-tropical, those wind-fields actually get larger than a compact hurricane. In some ways, more people could be affected.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2023.
