The Conservatives continue to lead on the Liberals, but the gap is narrower than it was when votes were cast last spring. "Alberta remains conservative leaning federally, but not monolithic," says Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. "Geography, the debate about independence and provincial political identity continue to shape federal attitudes in powerful ways."--Image source Abacus Data
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New polls show support for Mark Carney’s Liberals is increasing in Alberta.
A survey conducted by Abacus Data between Feb. 20 and 26 asked 1,000 Albertans for their voting intentions, approval of the federal government and impressions of leaders.
The Conservative Party retains a firm lead over the Liberal Party in terms of vote intentions, with 51 per cent of committed voters reporting they would vote blue. Meanwhile, 36 per cent of committed voters would cast a ballot for Carney’s Liberals.
However, this represents a much smaller gap than at the time of the federal election last spring, when 65 per cent of Albertans reported they would vote Conservative and only 28 per cent intended to vote Liberal.
In Edmonton, the Liberals now lead the city, with 47 per cent of committed voters reporting their support, compared to 40 per cent for the Conservatives.
In Calgary, the Conservatives maintain a 10-point lead over the Liberals, 49 to 39 per cent.
Outside the two main cities, the Conservative advantage widens, favouring the CPC 61 to 26 per cent. In rural areas, the gap expands further, 65 to 21 per cent.
“This survey reveals a federal political landscape in Alberta that is still very favourable to the Conservatives, but more competitive than it has been for a very long time,” says Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.
The majority of this growth in support for the Liberals comes from supporters of the provincial NDP who vote Liberal federally. Most UCP voters are consolidated behind the federal Conservatives.
However, the poll finds that the ongoing separatist discourse may be one source of increased Liberal support.
Nearly 80 per cent of supporters of Alberta independence say they would vote Conservative federally, but 56 per cent of those who strongly oppose independence say they would vote Liberal.
An Abacus poll conducted Feb. 20-25, also surveying 1,000 Albertans, found a strong majority of 64 per cent oppose independence, while 26 per cent identified as supporters of separation.
Coletto called separation the most interesting dynamic in the recent realignment.
“A majority of those strongly opposed to Alberta independence would vote Liberal if a federal election was held today,” said Coletto.
The Alberta independence movement cracked the top three issues facing voters for only 29 per cent of respondents.
The most common issues identified as priorities by respondents were cost of living, health care and the economy.
Impressions of Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre remained roughly equal, with around 40 per cent of respondents reporting a positive impression for both leaders.
Only 14 per cent of respondents reported a positive impression of U.S. President Donald Trump.
