Using data from Statistics Canada, Scotiabank is predicting strong economic growth in Alberta through 2026, leading the way for Canada.--CP FILE PHOTO
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A new report from Scotiabank economists using Statistics Canada data projects Alberta will lead Canadian provinces in economic growth over the next three years.
As Alberta’s energy products have avoided tariff impacts and oil production has continued to grow, Alberta heads into 2026 leading Canadian provinces in economic growth, and new data predicts that trend will continue.
Alberta’s economy grew by 3 per cent in 2024, and estimates show a similar pace in 2025.
Provincial growth in 2026 is projected at 2.6 per cent in 2026 and 2.7 per cent in 2027, higher than any other province and the projected national growth rate of 1.5 per cent in 2026 and 2 per cent in 2027.
The growth is projected to be maintained despite a steady decline in the price of Western Canadian Standard oil, which has fallen steadily since 2022.
Projections around oil prices expect to see the gains made by the opening of the Trans-Mountain Pipeline expansion reduced by the events in Venezuela.
Facing the brunt of the tariff impacts, Ontario and Quebec are expected to experience the country’s slowest growth over the next two years.
After a year of economic momentum in 2024, the national economy slowed in 2025 amid trade shocks and reduced immigration.
The impact of tariffs varies from province to province, with Ontario and Quebec experiencing average tariffs of more than 5 per cent on exports to the U.S. and other provinces experiencing a much smaller impact.
Alberta has fared well against U.S. tariffs, with an average rate well under 0.5 per cent. Only Newfoundland and New Brunswick have experienced lower average tariff rates.
According to other data included in the report, Alberta and Saskatchewan recorded the strongest job growth last year, rising 2.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively.
With changes to immigration policy at the federal level, population growth slowed drastically in 2025 in all provinces, but Alberta continued to experience the most rapid growth of any province at 2 per cent between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025.
