Buffalo (7-3) at Houston (5-5)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. EST, Amazon Prime.
BetMGM NFL Odds: Bills by 5 1/2.
Against the spread: Bills 5-5; Texans 4-6.
Series record: Texans lead 7-5.
Last meeting: Texans beat Bills 23-20 in Houston on Oct. 6, 2024.
Last week: Bills beat Buccaneers 44-32 at home; Texans beat Titans 16-13 in Nashville.
Bills offense: overall (2), rush (1), pass (8), scoring (4t).
Bills defense: overall (12), rush (31), pass (2), scoring (14).
Texans offense: overall (19), rush (23), pass (16), scoring (21).
Texans defense: overall (1), rush (3), pass (3), scoring (1).
Turnover differential: Bills-plus 1; Texans-plus 7.
Bills player to watch
WR Gabe Davis. The expectation is Davis being promoted off the practice squad for a second straight outing after showing an immediate rapport with quarterback Josh Allen. Davis caught three of four attempts thrown his way for 40 yards in his season debut. The sixth-year player spent his first four NFL seasons in Buffalo before playing for Jacksonville last season. His time with the Jaguars was cut short by a knee injury.
Texans player to watch
QB Davis Mills will get his third straight start with C.J. Stroud still recovering from a concussion he sustained Nov. 2. Mills has had his ups and downs in his first two starts since 2022, but he’s managed to make plays down the stretch to lead Houston to consecutive wins. He threw two touchdown passes and ran for a third score in the fourth quarter to help the Texans rally from a 19-point deficit for a 36-29 victory over the Jaguars. Last week he threw for 274 yards and a touchdown and led a drive that ended with a game-winning field goal in a 16-13 win over the Titans.
Key matchup
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Houston’s top-rated defense. Allen is coming off a win over Tampa Bay where he threw three touchdown passes and ran for three more scores. Now he’ll face a defense that is allowing the fewest yards (258.1) and points (16.3) in the NFL. He struggled in a loss to the Texans last season when he threw for just 131 yards, which was his lowest output of the season aside from the regular-season finale where he played just one snap. The game was tied late when Allen threw three straight incompletions to force the Bills to punt and the Texans won it on a last-second field goal.
Key injuries
Bills: TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) has been ruled out and will miss a second game. … Also ruled out are WR Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck) and WR/returner Mecole Hardman because of a calf injury sustained in his Bills debut on Sunday. … LB Shaq Thompson (hamstring) doesn’t carry an injury designation and is in line to return after missing three games.
Texans: S Jalen Pitre will also miss a third straight game recovering from a concussion. … K Ka’imi Fairbairn is expected to return Thursday after missing two games with a quadriceps injury.
Series notes
Houston has won three of the past four in the series, including a 22-19 overtime victory in the wild-card round in 2020. … Buffalo’s most recent win in the series was a 40-0 rout in 2021. …These teams first met in Houston’s first season in 2002 when the Bills got a 31-24 win. … The Texans won three in a row from 2009-14 for the longest winning streak in the series.
Stats and stuff
The Bills have split their first four prime-time outings this season. Buffalo is 6-1 playing on Thursday night since 2017, including a 31-21 win over Miami in Week 3. … Bills coach Sean McDermott won his 100th game (including playoffs), in becoming the NFL’s sixth coach to reach that milestone in his first nine seasons, joining Paul Brown, George Seifert, John Madden, Joe Gibbs and Mike McCarthy. … With 75 regular-season rushing touchdowns, Allen is tied with Cam Newton for the NFL record for quarterbacks. … Allen’s 213 regular-season touchdown passes are tied with Brett Favre for fifth-most by a player over his first eight seasons. He trails Patrick Mahomes (245), Peyton Manning (244), Dan Marino (241) and Russell Wilson (227). … With two interceptions on Sunday, Allen improved to 46-30 in games he commits a turnover (interception or fumble) and 20-19 with two or more giveaways. By comparison, he’s 37-7 when not committing a turnover. … Buffalo is 6-0 this season when RB James Cook scores a TD this season. … The Bills have allowed 17 TDs rushing this season, four more than all of last season. … Second-year safety Cole Bishop has three interceptions this season, including one in each of Buffalo’s past two games. The second-round draft pick made his first career start in Buffalo’s loss at Houston last season. … Texans rookie RB Woody Marks has three rushing TDs at home this season. … WR Nico Collins had nine catches for 92 yards and a touchdown last week. He had 78 yards receiving and a score in his previous game against Buffalo. … Rookie WR Jayden Higgins had four catches for 55 yards last week. … TE Dalton Schultz had six receptions for 51 yards last week for his third straight game with at least six catches and 50 yards. … DE Will Anderson Jr. had four tackles, two tackles for loss, a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery last week. He’s tied for seventh in the NFL with eight sacks this season. … DE Danielle Hunter had four tackles and 1 1/2 sacks last week. He is tied for fourth in the NFL with nine sacks this season. … LB Azeez Al-Shaair had six tackles last week for his third straight game with at least six tackles. … CB Kamari Lassiter has had a pass defensed in seven straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. … CB Derek Stingley had four tackles and a pass defensed last week. He has a pass defensed in eight of the past nine games.
Fantasy tip
Collins is a favorite option of Mills and has had 16 receptions for 228 yards combined in the past two games.
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The Associated Press
