Week 11 is filled with marquee matchups.
The Seattle Seahawks (7-2) and Los Angeles Rams (7-2) face off for first place in the NFC West.
The Broncos (8-2) take on the nine-time defending division champion Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) looking to prove the AFC West goes through Denver.
The reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) and Detroit Lions (6-3) meet in prime time in a potential preview of the NFC title game.
Pro Picks breaks them down.
PACKERS (5-3-1) at GIANTS (2-8)
Line: Packers minus 7
The Packers have lost two in a row. Jordan Love and the offense have struggled, scoring just 20 points combined in both games. Interim coach Mike Kafka coaches his first game for the Giants, who fired Brian Daboll. Jameis Winston will start because Jaxson Dart is in the concussion protocol. Micah Parsons could have a big day chasing him around.
BEST BET: PACKERS: 32-16
CHICAGO (6-3) at MINNESOTA (4-5)
Line: Vikings minus 3
Caleb Williams has led the Bears to three comeback wins in the last four games and they’ve won six of seven since an 0-2 start under Ben Johnson. Williams is 1-7 in eight starts vs. NFC North teams, including a loss to Minnesota in Week 1. J.J. McCarthy led the Vikings to a comeback win at Chicago in Week 1. He struggled against Baltimore last week in his fourth career start after an impressive performance against Detroit.
UPSET SPECIAL: BEARS: 23-22
NEW YORK JETS (2-7) at NEW ENGLAND (8-2)
Line: Patriots minus 13
The Jets have won two in a row, but they’re overmatched against the streaking Patriots, who’ve won seven straight games. Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level for New England. The Patriots have won 16 of their last 18 games against New York.
PATRIOTS: 26-14
WASHINGTON (3-7) at MIAMI (3-7) in Spain
Line: Dolphins minus 2 1/2
It’s a lost season for the Commanders after reaching the NFC title game last year. Marcus Mariota fills in for Jayden Daniels again. He’s lost seven straight starts as an underdog. The Dolphins are coming off an impressive rout over Buffalo. Favorites are 10-5 ATS in international games when both teams have losing records.
DOLPHINS: 24-20
HOUSTON (4-5) at TENNESSEE (1-8)
Line: Texans minus 6 1/2
Davis Mills saved Houston’s season by leading an improbable comeback when down 19 in the fourth quarter. He could start again if C.J. Stroud can’t return from a concussion. The Titans have been terrible. Cam Ward has thrown only five TD passes. But they’re coming off a bye, while Houston needed to stage a furious rally to win.
TEXANS: 20-14
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (7-3) at JACKSONVILLE (5-4)
Line: Chargers minus 3
The Chargers have won three straight, their defense was dominant last week and Justin Herbert withstood five sacks behind a depleted offensive line in a 15-point win against Pittsburgh. The Jaguars couldn’t protect a 19-point lead against a backup quarterback. They need to rebound at home. Herbert is 14-22 straight up against teams with a winning record but 2-1 this season.
CHARGERS: 23-17
CINCINNATI (3-6) at PITTSBURGH (5-4)
Line: Steelers minus 5 1/2
The Bengals have lost two in a row despite scoring 38 points in one and 42 in the other. Cincinnati’s defense might be just what Aaron Rodgers needs to get on track after a miserable game against the Chargers. The Steelers have lost three of four, including a prime-time game against the Bengals in Week 7. Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 27-11 straight up and 25-12-1 ATS vs. Cincinnati.
STEELERS: 27-20
CAROLINA (5-5) at ATLANTA (3-6)
Line: Falcons minus 3 1/2
The Panthers beat the Packers at Lambeau Field but lost to the Saints. Their passing game has struggled and questions about Bryce Young persist. The Falcons have lost four in a row since beating Buffalo, and Michael Penix Jr. has been inconsistent. Carolina routed Atlanta 30-0 in Week 3. The Panthers have never won three consecutive games both straight up and ATS against the Falcons.
FALCONS: 24-16
TAMPA BAY (6-3) at BUFFALO (6-3)
Line: Bills minus 5 1/2
The Buccaneers are missing several injured playmakers on offense and the defense is susceptible to allowing big plays. It’s possible they could get running back Bucky Irving back to face the league’s third-worst run defense. Josh Allen and the Bills are coming off a stunning lopsided loss to Miami one week after beating Kansas City. With Baker Mayfield, the Bucs are 13-4 ATS in a game after a loss.
BILLS: 27-23
SAN FRANCISCO (6-4) at ARIZONA (3-6)
Line: 49ers minus 2 1/2
With Mac Jones or Brock Purdy at quarterback, the 49ers have to rely on their offense featuring Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle because their defense has been depleted by injuries. Jacoby Brissett gets another start for the Cardinals. He could target Trey McBride 20 times in this one with Marvin Harrison Jr. out. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is 8-9 against Arizona.
49ERS: 27-20
SEATTLE (7-2) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (7-2)
Line: Rams minus 3
Both teams are also 7-2 ATS this season. It’s Sam Darnold’s biggest game since losing consecutive must-win games last season with Minnesota, including a playoff loss to the Rams. Seattle is one of the league’s most well-balanced teams. The Seahawks are 11-1 on the road under coach Mike Macdonald. Matthew Stafford is having a spectacular season for the Rams, whose only two losses came on the final play.
RAMS: 24-20
BALTIMORE (4-5) at CLEVELAND (2-7)
Line: Ravens minus 8
Lamar Jackson is back, the Ravens have won three in a row and they’re aiming to take over the AFC North from Pittsburgh. But they have to take care of business against lesser opponents before they face the Steelers in Week 14. The Browns are sticking with rookie Dillon Gabriel at QB. Deshaun Watson, if healthy, might get a chance before Shedeur Sanders. Jackson is 21-5 against Cleveland. The Browns are 11-22 ATS vs, division opponents under coach Kevin Stefanski.
RAVENS: 30-13
KANSAS CITY (5-4) at DENVER (8-2)
Line: Chiefs minus 4
Despite being the AFC’s current 8th seed, the Chiefs are favorites to win the Super Bowl and this week on the road. Patrick Mahomes has Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown to go along with Travis Kelce. Denver’s dominant defense presents a tough challenge. The Broncos have struggled on offense behind Bo Nix’s inconsistency. The Chiefs are coming off a bye. Coach Andy Reid is 22-4 after a bye in the regular season, including 6-1 with Mahomes.
CHIEFS: 24-18
DETROIT (6-3) at PHILADELPHIA (7-2)
Line: Eagles minus 2 1/2
Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties for the Lions and the offense was dynamic again. Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Philadelphia’s talented defense is going to be an excellent matchup. The Eagles will need their offense to step up against Detroit. Jalen Hurts has made plays when challenged. A.J. Brown has to be more involved in the passing game. Saquon Barkley needs more open lanes. Campbell and Goff are 13-3 in prime-time games. All three losses came as underdogs.
EAGLES: 27-23
DALLAS (3-5-1) at LAS VEGAS (2-7)
Line: Cowboys minus 3 1/2
It’ll be an emotional night for the Cowboys in their first game since defensive tackle Marshawn Kneeland died. DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson will make their debut for Dallas. Dak Prescott is 25-6 in prime-time games and the Cowboys are 18-12-1 ATS in those games. The Raiders played Denver tough in a 10-7 loss. Ashton Jeanty could get going against the league’s fifth-worst run defense.
COWBOYS: 27-20
Last week: Straight up: 10-4. Against spread: 8-6.
Overall: Straight up: 106-42-1. Against spread: 77-71-1.
Prime-time: Straight up: 20-14-1. Against spread: 15-20.
Best Bet: Straight up: 8-2. Against spread: 7-3.
Upset Special: Straight up: 7-3. Against spread: 7-3.
___
Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
___
AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl
Rob Maaddi, The Associated Press
