College football picks: Another week for an unranked underdog upset in the Top 25?

By Canadian Press on November 5, 2025.

If this week is like most others in college football the past two years, at least one unranked double-digit underdog will knock off a team in The Associated Press Top 25.

Since Florida State beat then-No. 8 Alabama as a 13.5-point underdog, at least one unranked double-digit ‘dog has beaten a ranked opponent six of the first 10 weeks of the season. None was as shocking as winless UCLA’s win over No. 7 Penn State as a 25.5-point ‘dog.

In 2024, at least one unranked double-digit underdog took down a Top 25 team in 10 of the 14 weeks of the regular season. Florida State was involved in the first one last year, too. The then-No. 10 Seminoles were on the wrong end of a 24-21 score against 10.5-point underdog Georgia Tech in Ireland.

The picks for this week’s FBS vs. FBS games, with Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

No. 1 Ohio State (minus 29 1/2) at Purdue

This isn’t the week Purdue ends its school-record 15-game losing streak in Big Ten games. Look for Ohio State QB Julian Sayin to pad his Heisman Trophy resume.

Pick: Ohio State 45-10.

No. 2 Indiana (minus 14 1/2) at Penn State

Hoosiers have hung 50-plus points on three of their six Big Ten opponents. The Nittany Lions won’t let that happen, but neither will they be able to keep up with this juggernaut.

Pick: Indiana 38-17.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 19 Missouri (plus 7)

Aggies have scored 135 points in their three road games and will bring the heat against Mizzou freshman Matt Zollers, who’ll make his first start in place of the injured Beau Pribula.

Pick: Texas A&M 27-21.

LSU at No. 4 Alabama (minus 10)

So much has gone on in Baton Rouge the last two weeks, the “First Saturday in November” rivalry game hasn’t had the usual buildup. All the pressure is on the Crimson Tide, and they’ll respond.

Pick: Alabama 31-14.

No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State (plus 7 1/2)

Mississippi State is 2-19 in SEC games since 2023, including 1-12 under second-year coach Jeff Lebby, yet no visiting team relishes playing in Starkville. Just ask Tennessee and Texas, both of which had to go overtime before getting out of town with wins.

Pick: Georgia 29-24.

No. 6 Oregon at Iowa (plus 6)

Ducks are 6-0 in Big Ten games played two or three time zones away from Eugene. Kinnick Stadium has a reputation for being inhospitable to ranked visiting teams. Hawkeyes will make this ugly.

Pick: Iowa 17-16.

No. 8 BYU at No. 9 Texas Tech (minus 10)

BYU freshman QB Bear Bachmeier is a rising star, but he hasn’t been in a road atmosphere like the one that awaits him in Lubbock. Both teams are battling injuries.

Pick: Texas Tech 33-20.

Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (minus 26 1/2)

Navy got its reality check at North Texas last week and now goes on the road again. The Fighting Irish, after a closer-than-expected win at Boston College, don’t want to give the CFP committee a reason to drop them from No. 10 next week.

Pick: Notre Dame 45-17.

Wake Forest at No. 12 Virginia (minus 6 1/2)

Virginia has won four games by one score during its seven-game win streak. Wake Forest laid an egg at Florida State last week and hopes it was a one-off.

Pick: Virginia 28-21.

California at No. 14 Louisville (minus 20 1/2)

Louisville’s Isaac Brown is the ACC’s second-leading rusher and averages a gaudy 8.59 yards per carry. That should worry a Cal defense that’s given up 45 runs of 10-plus yards.

Pick: Louisville 31-10.

Auburn at No. 15 Vanderbilt (minus 6 1/2)

Auburn plays its first game without fired coach Hugh Freeze. Tigers are 1-5 in the SEC, and all of the games have been decided by no more than 10 points. Commodores must avoid hangover from emotional loss at Texas.

Pick: Vanderbilt 24-16.

Syracuse at No. 18 Miami (minus 28 1/2)

Hurricanes are poised to go off on offense after being held to a season-low 20 points, their fewest in two years, in OT loss at SMU. Syracuse, loser of five straight, has serious issues on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Miami 43-10.

Northwestern at No. 20 Southern California (minus 14 1/2)

Trojans escaped Nebraska with a four-point win last week despite a season-worst offensive performance. Northwestern hasn’t scored more than 22 points against a power-conference opponent.

Pick: USC 34-14.

Tulane at No. 22 Memphis (minus 4 1/2)

The CFP committee put Memphis first in line for the Group of Five bid, and Tigers will be motivated to validate that spot.

Pick: Memphis 27-22.

No. 24 Washington (minus 11 1/2) at Wisconsin

Two teams headed different directions. Jedd Fisch, coach of the 6-2 Huskies, mentioned this week that last year’s national champion, Ohio State, had two losses, so all goals remain intact. Badgers barrelling toward worst season since Barry Alvarez’s first team went 1-10 in 1990.

Pick: Washington 34-13.

Byes: No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 13 Texas, No. 16 Georgia Tech, No. 17 Utah, No. 21 Michigan, No. 23 Tennessee, No. 25 Cincinnati.

AP predictions scorecard

Last week: Straight-up — 12-5; Against spread — 9-8.

Season: Straight-up — 130-38; Against spread — 81-86-1.

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Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

Eric Olson, The Associated Press

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