Utility commodity rates could see some growth in 2026

By Medicine Hat News on April 22, 2025.

@MedicineHatNews

Gas and power commodity rates are hovering around historic lows, but could rise slightly in 2026 as export and other development in Western Canada proceeds, City of Medicine Hat energy officials said last week.

A regular commodity update to the committee overseeing the utility division states long-depressed natural gas spot prices sit at $2.11 per gigajoule since Jan. 1.

The year-to-date power prices on the Alberta grid have averaged $38.77 per megawatt – or 3.9-cents per kilowatt hour, about half the average price from 10 years ago. That could be $44 for the rest of 2025 and rise to $46.40 next year, still only about 50 per cent less than in recent years.

“(Current pricing) may be a reflection of power market’s shoulder season,” said division head Rochelle Pancoast, referring to typically mild spring weather lodged between high-use winter heating and summer cooling periods.

“There’s some optimism (in 2026) related to (high-demand) data load centres coming online, but that could be substantial or it could be nothing.”

Natural gas prices are now forecast to average $2.55 over the course of the year, and rise to $3.15 in 2026, potentially due to the commissioning of liquid natural gas export facilities, which would remove some oversupply in Western Canada.

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