TORONTO — Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives chugged to a third majority government Thursday, propelled by his visible crusade against economic uncertainty emanating from the U.S., though falling short of the increased majority he urged.
Critics said this $189-million snap Ontario election was unnecessary, dangerously timed as President Donald Trump’s tariff knife dangles over Canada’s head and called only to capitalize on good polling numbers, but voters did not appear too keen to punish Ford for it.
Ford went into this snap vote saying he needed an even bigger mandate, the “largest mandate in Ontario’s history,” in order to deal with four years of a Trump presidency in the U.S. and the threat of tariffs.
However, he ended the campaign with a slightly different tune, saying he doesn’t look at the numbers — he just wants to win.
Less than half an hour after polls closed in Thursday’s vote, Progressive Conservatives were leading or elected in about 79 ridings, well past the 63 seats needed to form a majority, but under the 83 seats the party won in the last election.
The New Democrats were on track to form the official Opposition again, though perhaps with a reduced seat count.
The Liberals have been without official party status in the legislature since their majority government was decimated in 2018, but are set to regain that designation, which comes with resources and more debate time.
Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, however, was not expected to win a seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville.
Ford’s Protect Ontario campaign message came as Canadians found themselves caught in the swirling Trump vortex with frequently shifting winds.
Voters were looking for an anchor and Ford presented as one, suggested Karl Baldauf, senior vice-president at public affairs firm McMillan Vantage and a former Ford government staffer.
“As it relates to the story of Canada, things are changing in ways — and in profound ways — which each and every day we are realizing are deeper and more significant than we had thought,” Baldauf said.
“And he had the foresight to get in front of that and to wrap his campaign, not just in this opportunity for patriotism, but in response to the real challenges and worries that Ontarians have.”
Ford had the good political fortune to take over last summer as chair of the group of Canada’s 13 premiers, a position that rotates among the provinces.
When the federal government found itself embroiled in political chaos at a critical time in the tariff fight, Ford became the most conspicuous champion of Canada’s cause.
He has been dubbed Captain Canada, and while it’s a label his critics use derisively, Ford leaned into it, including wearing and promoting an Ottawa entrepreneur’s “Canada is not for sale” baseball cap.
“Will he also be lucky in four years from now, if the Trump tariffs come through and there are significant impacts on Ontario’s economy?” Baldauf said.
“Well, maybe not, but for this moment in time, he is seizing upon the good fortune.”
Ford campaigned hard to use his anti-tariff, pro-worker message to take NDP seats such as Windsor West — both a border city and with a large manufacturing presence — but the New Democrats retained most of them.
NDP strategist Melanie Richer said it shows that the Progressive Conservatives are not the party of labour.
“I think when push comes to shove, who stands with workers always in good times and in bad?” she said.
However, the NDP was set to end the night many seats down from the 31 they won in 2022. They were elected or leading in 25 seats about an hour after the polls closed.
“Obviously it’s always a little bit disappointing when you don’t get to hold on to all your seats,” she said.
“But again, in the threat of everything that’s happening in the U.S., in the push of the blue team and the red team coming hard after orange seats, the fact that we were able to hold and the fact that we were able to be competitive in a lot of those seats with Doug Ford…that’s a really good news story.”
The Progressive Conservatives also made a strong push in Haldimand-Norfolk, where Bobbi Ann Brady was running for re-election as an independent, but she resoundingly defeated the party for a second time.
Aside from tens of billions of dollars in spending that the Progressive Conservatives have pledged to counteract the effects of tariffs, their election platform hit on all the Ford high notes of infrastructure, skilled trades, cutting red tape and tough-on-crime promises with a shot of alcohol thrown in for good measure.
Ford promised to eliminate the minimum retail price for liquor, a move reminiscent of his signature 2018 campaign promise of Buck-a-Beer.
Though perhaps his splashiest promise this time around is to build a tunnel under Highway 401. He has not offered up any ballpark cost estimates for such a massive project, and a feasibility study Ford said he ordered last year is not complete, but he said it will get built regardless.
Notably absent from his platform was his oft-repeated promise from his successful 2022 campaign, to build 1.5 million homes by 2031. He affirmed in person that it is still his goal, though that target has become increasingly out of reach with each passing year.
While Ford made tariffs and the economy the focal point of his campaign, Crombie centred her campaign on a promise to connect every Ontarian to a family doctor, and NDP Leader Marit Stiles spoke a lot about health care and affordability.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner was the first to release a fully costed platform, with many promises on various provincial policy issues including building more housing, protecting farmland and improving affordability.
The party has held onto both Schreiner’s seat in Guelph and another in Kitchener Centre they picked up in a 2023 byelection.
They were hoping to add a third in Parry Sound-Muskoka — a seat the Greens have long had their eye on and where they came second in 2022 — but they again fell short.
Turnout was widely expected to be a concern on election day, with several weather advisories in effect in parts of the province on Thursday morning.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 27, 2025.
Allison Jones, The Canadian Press
