Inside the CFL: Will Sunday be an underdog story?

By MEDICINE HAT NEWS on November 19, 2022.

sports@medicinehatnews.com@MedicineHatNews

On Sunday, Winnipeg will win its third consecutive Grey Cup. In most categories the Bombers are superior. However three-peats are rare, Toronto has never lost a Grey Cup to Winnipeg, and, West or East, Andrew Harris is a Grey Cup beast.

But to quote American writer Damon Runyon, “There’s nothing as unsure as a sure thing.” So how can they lose?

In 1990, Winnipeg went into the Grey Cup against the powerful Edmontonians as prohibitive underdogs. However, buoyed by the spectacular performance of linebacker Greg Battle, the Bombers won 50-11. Winnipeg coach Cal Murphy devised a defensive scheme that opposition quarterback Tracy Ham couldn’t decipher. It was the biggest margin of defeat in Edmonton’s distinguished Grey Cup history.

The 2017 Grey Cup was between the 13-4-1 Stampeders and 9-9 Argos. Leading 24-17 with four minutes left, Bo Levi Mitchell passed to Kamar Jorden, who fumbled it at the one. DB Cassius Vaughan picked it up and ran 109 yards for a touchdown. Ricky Ray soon after engineered a tying three-pointer. Trailing by three, the Stamps moved into FG range in the last minute but Calgary coach Dave Dickenson went for all the marbles and Bo was intercepted in the end-zone. A turnover, plus a coaching error equals – the best team lost.

Underdogs have won Grey Cups by taking advantage of turnovers and coaching errors. It’s a tired but true cliche, the team that makes the fewest mistakes usually wins.

The two teams met in Toronto July 4, Winnipeg winning 23-22. In what could be an omen for Sunday, Argo kicker Boris Bede missed a convert that would have tied it. McLeod Bethel-Thompson completed 73% of his passes, Zach Collaros 80.6%. Andrew Harris ran for 111 yards, the man who took his place in Winnipeg, Brady Oliveira 28. Often comparisons between July and November teams are meaningless. But since then, the Bombers have only made three starting lineup changes, all on defence. With the exception of one on each side of the ball, the Argo lineup is the same as in July. Stability has been a key with both teams.

Winnipeg was third in total offence this year, Toronto sixth. The Bombers yielded the fewest yards, the Argos the second most. The Scullers were second in passing offence, the Bombers had the second best pass defence. Toronto was 6th against the rush, Winnipeg had the second most productive ground game. The Bombers were third against the rush, Toronto had the worst ground attack but that is deceptive because Andrew Harris missed 10 games. Argo weaknesses are Bomber strengths.

Winnipeg took the fewest penalties, Toronto was seventh worst. The Bombers had a better turnover ratio. They allowed 14 fewer sacks. While the team with the best defence usually has a lot of sacks, the Westerners ranked eighth, Toronto seventh. The Bombers rely on knock-downs and pressure coming from the ends while dropping up to nine men back into coverage.

The Argo receiving corps is led by rookie Kurleigh Gittens, Jr. Next up are Markeith Ambles, Cam Phillips and the veteran Brandon Banks, who shows occasional flashes of his former greatness. The Bomber group – led by 2022 CFL most outstanding rookie Dalton Schoen, with Nic Demski, Greg Ellingson Rasheed Bailey and Drew Wolitarsky – is much better. Toronto’s strength is on the ground with A.J. Ouillette and Andrew Harris. But Brady Olivera ran for 1,001 yards during the season and added 130 in the division final, so rushing is also a Winnipeg strength. The Bombers want to jump out to an early lead to force McLeod Bethel-Thompson away from the running game into the air. Toronto’s best bet is to force the gimpy Collaros to the bench. If both defences take the night off, Winnipeg is better equipped to win a shoot-out.

Special teams? Both Bomber Marc Liegghio and Argo Boris Bede are equally capable of being the goat.

Give Winnipeg the edge in coaching. Richie Hall, a CFL defensive coach since 1994, has seen it all. This is Argo Corey Mace’s first year as defensive coordinator. Boatman leader Ryan Dinwiddie is making his Grey Cup debut in his second year. Michael O’Shea has won six rings as a player, coordinator and head coach. Zach Collaros, who sustained an ankle injury last Sunday, says he’s good to go. If not, backup Dru Brown can get it done.

Graham Kelly has covered the CFL for the Medicine Hat News for 50 years. Feedback for this column can be emailed to sports@medicinehatnews.com