Notebook: Shifting winds have political pundits and polls in prediction mode
By COLLIN GALLANT on June 5, 2021.
cgallant@medicinehatnews.com@CollinGallant Without the benefit of pressing the flesh, so to speak, it’s hard to get a ground-level view of the provincial political situation. Rubbing shoulders, cornering candidates, and generally chatting up folks when out and about, is the typical way reporters get some sense about which way the political winds are blowing. That’s nearly impossible in a pandemic, and there’s no lack of factors added to the mix in a news cycle that continues running at break-neck speed. We should have learned the lesson already about assigning too much weight to social media, what the loudest person in our circle of Facebook friends has said the loudest and the longest. There’s a lot to digest. One new poll states the United Conservatives would hold the Cypress-Medicine Hat riding, but lose Brooks-Medicine Hat to an upstart further-right Independence party. And, the Alberta New Democrats would regain power if an election were held today. That is based largely on historic voting patterns, and the historic lay of the land that’s been utterly upset over the past month. For example, longtime MLA Drew Barnes, who resoundingly won the southern city riding for the UCP two years ago, is out of caucus and won’t be the major conservative party candidate next time out. Also, still-UCP MLA Michaela Glasgo handily defeated a self-styled “independent conservative” the last time voters in the city’s north and Brooks constituency had their say. As well, the Mainstreet Poll prediction that the Alberta Independence Party, which doesn’t have a leader at this point, not to mention local candidates, would capture the seat. That’s a lot of factors to consider for one poll, says local political scientist Jim Groom. The Medicine Hat College professor told the News that with so many moving parts, who knows where we’ll be in two year when the next election is due. “It (the poll) is a bit of a leap, but in the general sense we do see that rural ridings are the ones opposing (Premier Jason) Kenney on issues,” said Groom. “There is that division.” The poll was also provided by the Western Standard, an upstart right-of-centre outlet, but still one that’s paying for polling that traditional media usually obtains. Note of caution, the outlet is operated by Derek Fildebrandt, who has his own personal and professional history with Kenney. The former Brooks-Strathmore MLA – who once declared at a local press conference that Justin Trudeau was “a weakling” – was also forced out of the UCP caucus prior to the 2019 election. Eventually he became a member of the Freedom Conservative Party. The main driving force behind the Alberta Independence Party is Paul Hinman, a veteran campaigner who once sought the federal Conservative nomination here in the 2017 byelection. Will enough voters be swayed? “People like to elect a government, not just an MLA,” cautions Groom. “My sense is that ‘independence’ would scare away a lot of people who are maybe looking for some other form of conservative party to support.” “But it may all lead to really slim results (in the next election.” Doesn’t 2023 seem a lifetime away. More immediate is a constituency riding association AGM in Cypress-Medicine Hat on June 22, which will decide a new slate of directors. Aside from determining a local candidate, their term will also determine delegates to the party’s policy convention where a leadership review is to take place. A look ahead Council meets online Monday to discuss rezoning a Southeast Hill lot for a four-plex construction, a financial update, and approve the bylaw to dissolve the City Centre Development Agency. 100 years ago Rural school houses were proving too small to accommodate meetings of byelection candidates who criss-crossed the Medicine Hat riding this week in 1921, the News reported. Nelson Spencer, for the Conservatives, visited Box Springs, Schuler, Bowell, Bingville, Brutus, Suffield and Gros Ventre. Planned meetings were also set for Walsh, Pakowki, Alderson, Norton, Faith, Greyburn, Maleb, Little Plume, Many Islands and Evergreen. Robert Gardiner, on the Farmers-Labour ticket, moved across United Farmers territory district by district to speak in Bow Island, Winnifred, Fertile Plains, Newdale, Whitla, Seven Persons, Red Rock, Wisdom, Rosebeg, and Woolchester. Rumours in Ottawa suggest Lord Byng would be the next governor general. The Oklahoma national guard was called to quell two days of riots in Tulsa that left up to 300 dead after white mobs stormed a predominantly black neighbourhood, burning 1,400 homes. The local Athletic Association announced their Dominion Day program, including two baseball games and the annual track and field meet. Collin Gallant covers city politics and a variety of topics for the News. Reach him at 403-528-5664 or via email at cgallant@medicinehatnews.com 33-32
