FILE - Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the American Federation of Teachers' 88th national convention, July 25, 2024, in Houston. Harris appears to have energized Democrats in the early days of her candidacy, according to a new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research that was conducted after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. About 8 in 10 Democrats say they would be very or somewhat satisfied if Harris became the Democratic nominee for president. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez, file)
WASHINGTON (AP) – Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have energized Democrats in the early days of her candidacy, with the surge in warm feelings extending across multiple groups, including some key Democratic constituencies that had been especially tepid about President Joe Biden, a new poll shows.
About 8 in 10 Democrats say they would be somewhat or very satisfied if Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, according to the survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which was conducted after Biden withdrew from the race.
In a separate AP-NORC poll, taken before Biden dropped out but after his debate against former President Donald Trump, only about 4 in 10 Democrats said they were somewhat or very satisfied that he was the Democratic Party’s likely nominee for president.
The rapidly changing views among Democrats in such a short time span underscore how swiftly the party – from rank-and-file voters to elected officials – has coalesced behind Harris as its standard-bearer, motivated by the fresh face at the top of the ticket and newfound confidence in the party’s prospects against Trump in November.
Gary Hines, a Democrat from Philadelphia, said he wasn’t particularly impressed by Harris’ first presidential bid but now, she’s shown “she’s up to the task, can do the work, has proven that she’s running a strong campaign so far and maybe on a bigger level, she’s somebody that can beat Donald Trump.” All those factors have ignited an enthusiasm in Hines that wasn’t there when Biden was still in the race, he said.
“I really want to go out and maybe knock on doors, which I would’ve never done,” said Hines, 68. “It’s jazzed me up quite a bit.”
Americans are also more likely to say that Harris would make a good president than they were earlier in July, a shift that was primarily driven by Democrats. They still see a tough contest looming, though: A majority of U.S. adults, 56%, say that if Trump and Harris are their parties’ nominees for the general election in November, Trump is more likely to win.
Lauren Schulman, a Democrat from Pompano Beach, Florida, said she admires Biden and what he has accomplished during his presidency. But she said with him at the top of the ticket, “I have just been so terrified that we were going to lose.”
With Harris, on the other hand, “she’s been a bright, shining star,” said Schulman, 66, noting that the vice president is “smart and she’s younger, and she even comes off younger than she is. That makes such a huge contrast with Trump.”
Growing enthusiasm for Harris – especially compared to Biden
About 7 in 10 Black adults and about half of Hispanic adults would be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee – a marked increase from earlier in July, when about half of Black adults and 15% of Hispanic adults felt satisfied with Biden as the Democrats’ expected nominee. (The poll did not include enough Asian adults to analyze their responses separately.)
The share of younger adults (those under the age of 45) who say they would be satisfied with Harris as the nominee, at around 4 in 10, is higher than the 17% who said they were satisfied with Biden in July.
Bryan Seigler, a Democrat from Raleigh, North Carolina, praised Harris’ “broad appeal” and pointed to a contrast that Democrats weren’t able to make before.
“Donald Trump is the old guy now,” said Seigler, 36.
The new poll shows that Harris’ overall favorability has risen slightly, from 39% at the beginning of the summer – before the debate – to 46% now. Democrats’ opinions of Harris have also shifted in a slightly more positive direction. Eight in 10 Democrats have a positive view of Harris, up slightly from around 7 in 10 in early June.
Harris would be a historic candidate – she would be the first woman to win the presidency, as well as the first Black woman, the first South Asian American, and the first Asian American. Around 4 in 10 Americans say that it would be a good thing for the country to elect either a woman or a person of color to be president. Even more – about 6 in 10 when asked about electing a person of color and about half when asked about electing a woman – say it does not matter.
Majorities of Democrats, however, say it would be good for the country to elect a woman or person of color.
Views of Biden’s decision
Most Americans, 54%, say they have heard or read a lot about Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. About three-quarters of Americans approve of his decision to withdraw as the Democratic nominee for president, including most Democrats and Republicans.
For many Democrats, Biden’s catastrophic June 27 debate showed that – even if they were largely satisfied with his accomplishments during his time in office – the incumbent president should not be running for a second term because of concerns about how his age was affecting his public performance or his ability to campaign effectively against Trump.
“When I watched the debate, you could just tell his cognitive ability was hardly there,” said Julian Castañeda, a Democrat in Pocatello, Idaho. “He had a hard time forming sentences and a lot of his responses, I couldn’t even understand what he was saying. At his age right now, it was appropriate for him to stand aside.”
Biden’s choice to endorse Harris as the Democratic nominee for president is slightly more divisive, with about half of U.S. adults in support, though Democrats overwhelmingly approve. There are similar levels of support for Biden’s decision to serve out the rest of his presidential term.
Withdrawing from the race didn’t do much to change Americans’ views of Biden overall. About 4 in 10 Americans approve of how Biden is handling his job as president. That number is roughly in line with where it has been for the last two years. Biden’s favorability ratings are similar to where they were before he dropped out of the race, with about 4 in 10 adults and about three-quarters of Democrats holding a positive view.
Americans see a tough election contest for Harris
Even as the new Harris campaign has reasons for optimism, the vice president faces an opponent who is better known by the country and who has a reputation for a loyal base of support.
Most Americans perceive Trump as having the advantage going into the November election. A majority of U.S. adults say that if Trump and Harris are the candidates, Trump is more likely to win. About 9 in 10 Republicans say Trump is more likely to become president, while only about 7 in 10 Democrats say that about Harris.
Schulman thinks Harris is more likely to win this fall. Still, she added: “Democrats, we’re like a real, nervous, paranoid bunch these days.”
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The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
