Four new MPs are set to be elected to the House of Commons Monday, during a stream of byelections that political watchers say could lead to a new Liberal cabinet minister, and test the Conservative party as it deals with internal fighting over one of its seats. An arrow points to where people can go to cast their ballots in Montreal, Monday, September 20, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes
OTTAWA – Early results from a federal byelection show the Tories cruising towards victory in a race that pitted Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives against Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada.
As of about 10:40 p.m. ET, the Conservatives’ Branden Leslie was leading by 3,134 votes to Bernier’s 837, according to Elections Canada, based on 55 out of 248 polls reporting.
The riding of Portage-Lisgar was one of four byelections held Monday. Results began to come in shortly after 9:30 p.m. ET.
Many eyes were watching the sweeping rural riding as a test for how the fledging People’s Party would fare against Poilievre’s Conservatives.
It was the constituency that delivered the People’s Party its best result during the 2021 federal election at roughly 22 per cent, riding on momentum from the region’s staunch opposition to COVID-19 health restrictions, which Bernier stood vehemently against.
Going into Monday’s race, the federal Conservatives not only wanted to defeat Bernier, who had hoped to turn support from 2021 into his ticket to regaining a seat in the House of Commons, which he lost in 2019, but crush him and the threat his more far-right party posed to its support.
Bernier has bet his success in this byelection on appealing to social conservatives by vowing to reopen the abortion debate, and courting those opposed to transgender-inclusive policies.
The closest race of Monday’s byelection was shaping up in the Conservative stronghold of Oxford, a rural Ontario riding.
As of about 10:55 p.m. ET, the Conservatives’ Arpan Khanna was leading his Liberal opponent David Hilderley by 3,522 votes to 2,934.
Political observers had predicted a closer-than-usual fight in the riding that had voted Tory blue for nearly 20 years.
Going into Monday’s vote, former MP for the riding David MacKenzie said that party infighting had led to “the nastiest campaign that we’ve ever seen in our riding.” MacKenzie announced in December he was stepping away.
His daughter had been among the names hoping to nab the Conservative nomination. The party’s sudden disqualification of Gerrit Van Dorland, a social conservative with roots in the area, left many social conservatives upset.
MacKenzie also voiced concern with Arpan Khanna, the candidate who would go on to successfully win the party’s nomination, as parachuting into the community without due process. The former MP took his disapproval and turned it into support for the contest’s Liberal candidate.
Khanna, who helped Poilievre campaign in Ontario during last year’s leadership campaign and ran as a candidate for former leader Andrew Scheer in a Brampton riding in 2019, has nonetheless found support.
“It seems to me like he doesn’t sleep,” said 61-year-old Woodstock resident Richard Hautela.
“I would send him a question by email, and he would respond to me in 10 minutes. Or if I left a voice message, he would call me back right away.”
Hautela said many criticize Khanna because he did not grow up in the area, but he sees him as genuine in his beliefs.
“He’s been here a year, and I think the important thing is does he stand for the values that Oxford county stands up for. And he does.”
The dumping of Van Dorland, however, continued to resonate with voters at Monday’s polls.
“I didn’t think it was very democratic,” said Karl Toews of Burgesville, Ont., a criminal lawyer and Ontario Party candidate in the 2022 provincial election
Winnipeg South Centre, a longtime Liberal stronghold, was widely expected to remain a Liberal seat Monday after the death of longtime MP Jim Carr last December.
And a prominent Liberal insider, Anna Gainey, is expected to keep Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount red after the retirement of former cabinet minister Marc Garneau.
Montreal-area Liberal MP Anthony Housefather, who has been campaigning for Gainey during the byelection, said he was happy for the longtime Liberal who was running for the first time.
“She’ll be a strong voice for the English-speaking community in the Liberal caucus,” Housefather told reporters.
“She cares deeply about minority rights, Charter rights and (that’s) what people are the most concerned about right now in the English community.”
Gainey is also former party president and served as the policy adviser to two national defence and veterans’ affairs ministers.
That experience could put her in a prominent position, suggested Lori Turnbull, an associate professor of political science at Dalhousie University.
“She’s had such a high profile in the party, has been party president and is a good friend of the Trudeaus. Will there be a cabinet position for her?” she said.
“I’d be surprised if she wasn’t given a leadership role.”
–With files from Sidhartha Banerjee and Kiernan Green
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 19, 2023.
